Seasonal Aspects of a Forest Fire Risk Index in Northern Brazil Using Meteorological Data

Abstract

This study proposes to evaluate the seasonality of a forest fire risk index in states located in the North region, in relation to the meteorological danger based on the relative humidity and precipitation data, using the Monte Alegre Formula (FMA). 39 of the 41 available conventional weather stations were evaluated. As they have not registered data since 1978, two stations were discarded. The time series analyzed was 37 years and 6 months (January 1978 to June 2016) for hourly and daily data. The files were downloaded, converted to txt format, organized and compiled using the R statistical software for calculating the fire hazard index, using the Monte Alegre Formula. The results indicate a great seasonality of fire risk in the studied states, with the variability of the Monte Alegre Index (IMA) associated with total rainfall, relative humidity indices, climatic types and dominant plant physiognomies in the municipalities, making it possible to indicate the months where the fire risks in the localities indicate “high” and “very high” risk within the risk scales proposed by the FMA.